by Saya Sang Uk Ceu (Nor-Norge)

Nikhat cu Sweden ta a si mi Forex Bank nih interview an ka kawh i ka va kal.  Sau nawn bia kan i ruah hnu ah 80% in kan in pek hmasa lai i duhsah in a kai ṭhan te lai, nain interview hi second round tiang tuah a hau i hmaizarh ah second round kan tuah ṭhan lai i a ran khawh chung in rian domh ding khi a si hnga tiah an ka ti i thanuam ngai khin inn lei ah ka lawi.  A thaizing kiptuh (March 12) ah cozah nih restriction a van thok ciammam i a lingtalet in thil vialte ai cang dih.  Ni 3-4  a van rau i Forex Bank nih cun ca an van ka kuat, «Covid-19) ruang ah economy ai sualsan dih i zeitihmanh in second round interview tuah awk a ṭha ti lo, thil sining normal (stable) a van si tik ah thawng kan in thanh ṭhan te lai» ti a si ko.  Ka lungchung in «aze…cu ngai cu, kei ka tanghra awn kum ah paam a tlung» ti pei ka chuah ne hi tiah keimah le keimah kai ceih. 

Covid-19 ai thok ka hrawng ahkhan zapi kan caahcun virus nak in economic consequence hi lungrethei deuh a si tiah ka rak ṭial tawn.  Restriction an van thok, lam ah minung an um ti lo, company tampi le sector tamtuk khar ter a si, national level in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) tamtuk a zawr, IMF’s president nih recession ah kan lut cang i 1930 bantuk great depression a phan ṭhan kho kan si tiah a ti.  Company pawl an ṭilh (bankrupt) nak hnga lo le caan karlak rian dinh ter mi phuah thai an ton nak hnga lo cozah nih phaisa tampi thap in an cawl.  Ril cetpeh ah bomhnak tete an tuah i bomhnak van hmuh chawng ahcun kan tha nuam ko rih.  Nain mahhi economic consequence hi duh sah tein a fah ning theih chin lengmang dawh in kan um.  Europe lei economy experts pawl nih Europe ram hi 2020 chung ahcun a zeitihmanh in a mah kel ah ai sersiam kho lai lo, a tuan bik ah 2021 chung ahkhin cu hlanbantuk dirhmun ah ai siamremh kho te hnga maw tiah an ti.

USA dirhmun zoh usih.  Vawleicung ah zinaan tambik export tuah tu hna hi Saudi Arabia, Russia le USA an si.  Covid-19 ruang ah an zinaan zuar kho loin kudawng ah ai pong ṭhup.  Nizan ah American Oil (WTI) cu 1 barrel = -37.63 USD a si ko, 1983 hnu ah American tuanbia ah a um bal lo mi minus a piah i zinaan chuahtu nih minus a piah mi kha an liam i an hlonh dih ding khi asi (Financial Times, 21.04).  Tuchun ah 1 barrel = 1 USD a si ṭhan, minus in +1 ah a kai.  Kan hnung te ahkhan OPEC le Russia cu Oil Production kha nikhat ah 10 million barrels zawr ter ding in hnatlaknak an tuah i cunihcun oil price a kai ter ṭhan te lai tiah ruahchan a si nain cu hnaltaknak cu May thla hnu lawng ah thok te ding a si pin ah oil market kha balance a si khawh nak ding ah zinaan chuah mi zawr ter lawng in a za lo ti a si. 

American zinaan man tlak mi nih Norway zinaan le phaisa zong fak piin a van tlak pi chih ve.  Nihin Norway zinaan man cu 1 barrel = 18.38 USD a si i 2002 ahkhan voikhat hitiang hi a rak tla bal ve ti a si.  Pu Trump nih nizaan press conference ah a chim mi cu, «tulio dirhmun hi zinaan khonnak (chiahnak) hmun/inn kauh ternak caan ah hman a hau i million 70 barrels chiahnak kan ser chap lai» tiah a ti (e24.no, 21.04).  Culawng a si lo.  Pu Trump nih nizan ah Twitter ah, «tulio mithmuh khawh lo raal ruang (coronavirus) le American mipi an rian kilvennak ding ah ramdang mi USA ah caan karlak chung lut kho lo ding in min ka thut lai» tiah a ttial (VG, 21.04).  A fiang mi cu, USA le Europe ah rian a har thluahmah lai.  Norway zong ah ram pumpi huap in rian sawk mi (register ai tuah mi) hi ting 4 hrawng an si cang ti a si (SSB,20.04).  Nizan nai hrawng media ah an ṭial pah lengmang mi cu university ṭhaṭha in master degree dihka tampi rian sawknak hmun ngei loin an idil tung ko ti a si. 

«The Great Depression » kong khi nan rel bal dek maw? 1929 – 1939 (kum 10) a rak rau.  American mipi 15 million rianlo in an rak um i US ram bank vialte hnarcheu tluk an rak ṭil.  Europe ram Germany, Austria, Poland ahcun ram mipi rianṭuan kho chung in 20% cu rian ngeilo dirhmun an phan i GND 40% a rak zawr.  Rian ngeilo le umnak ngeilo an tam caah cozah nih a lak in pek mi soup, coffee le doughnuts cu ṭaansii (waiting in line) in a hngak mi an rak tam.  The great depression a dih bak in Hitler nih WWII a rak chuah ter colh.  Cubantuk siipuazii zatlaknak cu hei phan sual sihlaw upa hi cu Lairam ah sangra le kawmciar he hmanh khua a sa bal mi kan si i ai ning nain kan fa le pawl western ram living standard he a ṭhang mi ca ruah ahkhin a fawi lo.  Ṭhih pheih a si lo, nihin kan dirhmun in a ra lai mi caan ah a cang kho ding mi (scenario) kha chim mi a si.